West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled to the lowest since December 2003. Concerns that China’s economic growth may slow has soured investors on the prospects for a quick recovery, turning hedge funds the least bullish in five years. A rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar may send Brent oil to as low as $20 a barrel, Morgan Stanley said.
Minyak meneruskan momentum penurunan 70 peratus sejak Jun 2014 yang didorong pasaran China dalam laluan ekuiti global dan stok simpanan AS kekal lebih daripada 120 juta tong melebihi purata lima tahun. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., pengeksport minyak mentah terbesar di dunia, disahkan pada 8 Januari sedang mengkaji pilihan untuk penjualan saham, termasuk senarai "beberapa" anak syarikat penapisan.

Oil extended a 70 percent drop since June 2014 as volatility in Chinese markets fueled a rout in global equities and U.S. stockpiles remained more than 120 million barrels above the five-year average. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s biggest crude exporter, confirmed on Jan. 8 it was studying options for a share sale, including listing “a bundle” of refining subsidiary.

"Psikologi telah benar-benar diambil alih," kata Stephen Schork, presiden Schork Group Inc. di Villanova, Pennsylvania. "Sentimen pasaran telah beralih setakat ini dengan kadar memuaskan. Telah ada pengurangan yang besar dalam kedudukan CFTC, yang menunjukkan bahawa semua orang menuju ke pintu keluar.(menjual Saham)"

Minyak WTI untuk penghantaran Februari jatuh $ 1.28, atau 4.1 peratus, kepada $ 30.13 setong pada masa 02:07 di New York Mercantile Exchange. Kontrak itu menyentuh $ 29.93, harga urusniaga harian terendah sejak Disember 2003. Minyak kehilangan harga 30 peratus tahun lepas.Brent untuk Februari menurun $ 1.05, atau 3.3 peratus, kepada $ 30.50 setong di ICE Futures Eropah, pertukaran yang berpangkalan di London. Ia mencecah $ 30.34, sekurang-kurangnya sejak April 2004 iaitu penanda aras harga Eropah yang diniagakan pada premium 37 sen kepada WTI.

"Psychology has completely taken over," said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. "Market sentiment has shifted so far that it’s self-fulfilling. There’s been a big cutback in CFTC positions, which shows that everyone is heading for the exits."
WTI for February delivery fell $1.28, or 4.1 percent, to $30.13 a barrel at 2:07 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched $29.93, the lowest intraday price since December, 2003. Prices lost 30 percent last year.
Brent for February settlement decreased $1.05, or 3.3 percent, to $30.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It touched $30.34, the least since April 2004. The European benchmark crude traded at a 37 cent premium to WTI.

Hubungan Dolar

Kejatuhan minyak menyebabkan dolar kukuh dan boleh terus menjunam antara 10 hingga 25 peratus jika kekuatan USD meningkat 5 peratus, penganalisis Morgan Stanley , Adam Longson katanya dalam satu nota penyelidikan bertarikh Isnin. Societe Generale SA mengurangkan purata harga Brent tahun 2016 kepada  $ 42,50 setong dari $ 53,75 pada hari Isnin, manakala Bank of America Corp memotong unjuran untuk $ 46 setong dari $ 50.

Minyak jatuh ,USD mengukuh, mengurangkan penguasaan komoditi terhadap nilai mata wang. Indeks Komoditi Bloomberg, yang termasuk daripada 22 bahan-bahan mentah merosot kepada paras terendah sejak 1999.

Dollar Relationship

Oil is particularly leveraged to the dollar and may fall between 10 to 25 percent if the currency gains 5 percent, Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson said in a research note dated Monday. Societe Generale SA cut its average 2016 Brent forecast to $42.50 a barrel from $53.75 on Monday, while Bank of America Corp. trimmed its forecast to $46 a barrel from $50.
Crude also fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened, diminishing the appeal of commodities denominated in the currency. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a gauge of 22 raw materials slumped to the lowest level since 1999.
"Tiada teknikal dalam analisis harga minyak,umpama kita melihat pisau yang jatuh," kata Jason Schenker, presiden Prestige Ekonomi LLC di Austin, Texas. "Kebimbangan tentang sentimen ekonomi global dan kekuatan dolar yang berterusan memberi tekanan kepada pasaran."

"There are no technicals holding up the price so we’re looking at a falling knife," said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas. "Concern about global economic sentiment and dollar strength are continuing to weigh on the market."

Sumber : bloomberg